Finding where the NDIS opportunity really sits

NDIS providers · Market Intelligence and Analysis · Social and Public Welfare, Employment and Economic Participation

We built a district level scoring model that shows disability providers where to grow, what to offer and when.

The challenge

The NDIS is big and still growing, but that growth isn't spread evenly. Disability providers are making major calls on where to open, what to offer and when, and too often those calls rest on instinct, history or the loudest local voice. We work with several providers who wanted something sturdier: a clear, evidence based picture of where the opportunity really sits, and where it doesn't.

What we did

We built a scoring model that rates every NDIS service district on participant demand, market growth, supply gaps, community need and strategic fit, drawing on NDIA, ABS and Primary Health Network data. Each district received a clear call: deepen, maintain, enter or monitor. We then tested future service lines, from ageing in place to school leaver employment, and mapped the order in which to enter new regions. One finding cut against instinct: the biggest markets were often already well served.

The impact

Providers can now make growth decisions with confidence, backed by district level evidence that stands up in the boardroom and can be refreshed as new NDIA data is released.

Deliverables

District scoring framework

District scorecards

Future service line analysis

Prioritised growth roadmap

Case studies

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• Libraries ACT: A new chapter for Canberra's libraries, written with the community
• Bayside City Council: Shifting a whole organisation from outputs to impact
• Cancer Council South Australia: A clear strategy to carry a century of impact forward
• Afford Disability: Three years turning strategy into reality, with people with disability at the centre
• Fire to Flourish: Turning complex ideas into a story people can see
• NDIS providers: Finding where the NDIS opportunity really sits
• Bush Heritage Australia: A clearer digital story for some of the country’s most important landscapes
• Interact Australia: Proving the difference, in a way everyone can answer
• beyondblue: Rethinking workplace wellbeing, one leader's story at a time
• Indigenous Business Australia: An impact framework that helped secure $150 million for self-determination
• City of Greater Dandenong: A people-centred strategy, co-designed by the people who deliver it
• Snap Send Solve: One shared purpose, three pillars and a roadmap to take a homegrown app from local favourite to global platform.
• Cathy Freeman Foundation: A sharper story and a stronger funding base to close the education gap
• Philanthropy Australia: Turning a strategy about engagement into the way a team works
• Collaboration for Impact: Telling the story of systems change
• Orygen: A national youth mental health brand, launched on deadline
• MONA: A ticketing platform built for the arts, not the ferry
• Alannah & Madeline Foundation: Eight websites, one connected story
• The Reject Shop: Getting clear on why it exists and where it wins
• PrimeSafe Victoria: A board and executive, realigned around a clear strategy